EUROPEAN HVAC : +44% for German Heat Pumps incentive applications in April

Research evidence excerpt

EUROPEAN HVAC : +44% for German Heat Pumps incentive applications in April

EQUITIES

BUILDING MAT.

CAPITAL GOODS

EUROPEAN HVAC

+44% for German Heat Pumps incentive applications in April

German incentives for HPs +44% in April – good proxy also for Europe?8 JUNE 2026

Securities Research Report Last Friday German authorities reported the official statistics for the applications to obtain fiscal

Production time: 05:42* (London time) incentives for the installation of Heat Pumps in Germany. 31.8k applications were submitted,

Research Analysts & Publishing Entities representing a +44% YoY growth (+32% YTD). As we noted in the last update (EU HVAC: Hot

Michele Baldelli, CFA takes from marketing post EU HVAC launch) Google trends continued to grow strongly for heat

BNP Paribas SA pumps since the start of the conflict in Iran. We view this positive trend in Germany as possibly(+39) 02 8963 1744

michele.baldelli@bnpparibas.com being applicable also to other European regions which may imply an acceleration of growth in Q2

2026 compared with Q1, where the HP market already grew by +17% (the air-to-water category

grew at low-teens percentage growth YoY, as reported by Ariston and NIBE)

NIBE preferred play but Ariston just after

NIBE has roughly 10% of its sales in Germany, most of which should be attributed to the heat

pumps system product category. Ariston has c. 20% of its sales in Germany but the related

cannibalization effect on boilers (there is no cannibalization for NIBE) makes the impact at group

level similar to, or even slightly milder than, that of NIBE according to our estimates.

Component suppliers (CAREL/ LU-VE) should have little exposure to Germany alone

With c. 7% of group sales related to European Heat Pumps both for Carel and for LU-VE, and