Stonegate: Model update, Buy

Research evidence excerpt

Stonegate: Model update, Buy

Deutsche Bank

Research

Europe Company Date

22 June 2026

High Yield Corporates Stonegate

Consumer Services, Leisure &

Gaming

Model update, Buy

Ricardo Chinchilla

Stonegate Pubs (STONPB) reported Underlying EBITDAR of £104 million (+9.5%

Research Analyst

versus £95 million in Q2'25) on revenues of £335 million (-8.5% versus £366 million +44-207-541-6172

in Q2'25). Results were aligned with our £104 million Underlying EBITDAR

estimate. Excluding the impact from rent, Underlying EBITDA was £86 million

(+11.7% versus £77 million in Q2'25).

During the conference call with lenders, management reiterated the company

remains on track for material profit growth in FY'26. Regarding Q3'26 performance,

STONPB noted Q3 has Easter last year but 4 weeks of the FIFA World Cup, which

will be very positive for trade in all divisions. Management also highlighted

continued reduction in exposure to more volatile trading within the managed

business and momentum building on exiting loss-making sites with deals agreed

with landlords.

Business volumes related to the World Cup have been robust and aligned with

management expectations, partially benefiting from the advantageous scheduling

of England matches. Forward bookings indicate sustained growth, surpassing

figures from the prior Euros tournament. Continued advancement of the English

team is anticipated to further enhance trading performance over the subsequent

four weeks.

Regarding cash flow generation, management noted Stonegate is currently near

cash break-even, attributed to conversion capital expenditure. Medium-term

projections indicate a potential for approximately £100 million in free cash flow,

driven by reduced capital expenditure and increased underlying EBITDA. Annual