DBDaily: Oil drops to early March levels; UK PM Starmer resigns, what is next for GBP?

Research evidence excerpt

DBDaily: Oil drops to early March levels; UK PM Starmer resigns, what is next for GBP?

23 June 2026

DBDaily

restrictions via non-tariff barriers, resulting in meaningful costs to GDP and

employment. The cost of living has also been modestly higher. But it is not all

doom and gloom, either. The big medium-term question: is there a path back to

the EU? The path to re-integrate would be a challenging, argues Sanjay and there

are political limits.

Why have markets not rallied more since the US-Iran deal? Even as stagflation

fears recede, the S&P500 remains below its record from early June. Henry Allen

sees four reasons for this: (1) the Fed’s hawkish pivot, which has pushed up global

real yields, counteracting the relief from the deal; (2) markets were always pricing

a temporary conflict; (3) the historic rally on risk assets over April and May meant

stretched valuations to start with; and (4) a durable uptick in traffic through the

Strait of Hormuz is yet to be seen.

Germany’s housing update. Joechen Moebert notes that German residential

dwelling completions plummeted in 2025 to the lowest level since 2012. But

against the backdrop of rising building permits, supportive government

incentives, and positive developments in the modular construction sector, he is

optimistic about a rebound.

Has the RBA been too soft on inflation? Lachie Dynan looks at two rules-based

policy prescriptions for the RBA and notes that one of them suggests the RBA's

easing in 2025 was warranted, while the other would have eased policy by a bit

less than 75bps actually delivered. Currently, both rules suggest policy that leans

toward another hike while variations that place more weight on inflation suggest

policy ought to be 2-3 hikes higher. Lachie’s view remains that if hike pricing for