Tracking China’s Semi Localization: Raising China AI GPU TAM on recent geopolitical dynamics

Research evidence excerpt

Tracking China’s Semi Localization: Raising China AI GPU TAM on recent geopolitical dynamics

Idea

June 22, 2026 09:07 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+MTracking China’s Semi Localization | Asia Pacific Charlie Chan

Equity Analyst

Raising China AI GPU TAM on Charlie.Chan@morganstanley.comDaniel Yen, CFA +886 2 2730-1725

Daniel.Yen@morganstanley.com +886 2 2730-2863

recent geopolitical dynamics Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+

Daisy Dai, CFA

The recent tightening of US export controls for China’s overseas Equity Analyst

Daisy.Dai@morganstanley.com +852 2848-7310

entities may create a new TAM for China’s AI GPU.

Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+

Recent news regarding halting of AI chip shipments to Chinese firms outside of Tiffany Yeh

China poses a 'bull case' scenario for China AI GPU: in early June, news reported Tiffany.Yeh@morganstanley.com +886 2 7712-3032

that the US ‌Department of Commerce had moved to close a potential loophole that

Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+

may have led companies to export the world's most advanced chips – such as Henry Zhao

NVIDIA's most sophisticated Blackwell processors – to subsidiaries of Chinese Research Associate

Henry.Zhao@morganstanley.com +852 2239-7731

companies located outside China. We think that, in the short term, China CSPs may

Ethan Jia

turn to more GPU rental to fulfill the strong computing demand, while in the mid- Research Associate

to-longer term, it is likely that China AI GPU may potentially see overseas adoption, Ethan.Jia@morganstanley.com +852 3963-2287

which is the bull base we argue in our China AI GPU Insight report. Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+

Lucas Wang

We raise our forecast of China's AI chip TAM to US$91bn by 2030, up 36%, from Research Associate

US$67bn previously, implying a 23% CAGR over 2025-30.