BoJ Tankan preview (Jun 2026): mfg mixed, non-mfg down

Research evidence excerpt

BoJ Tankan preview (Jun 2026): mfg mixed, non-mfg down

18 June 2026

Mizuho Securities Equity Research Economics / Domestic and Overseas Economy

Economic Analysis

Iran war dampens sentiment, but future DI may reflect hopes for end to war

We expect the June 2026 BoJ Tankan, scheduled for release on 1 July, toChief Economist:

show a mixed picture in the business conditions DI for large manufacturersShunsuke Kobayashi

and a deterioration for large non-manufacturers compared to the previous+81 3 6202 8222

shunsuke.kobayashi@mizuho-sc.com survey. The survey was sent out on 28 May and the deadline for response was

11 June. As of the response cutoff date, higher resource prices and supply

Economist: constraints from the escalating conflict in the Middle East were likely weighing

Soichiro Hirose on sentiment. However, the survey continues to collect responses until just+81 3 6202 8293 before release, so some responses may reflect expectations for an end to thesoichiro.hirose@mizuho-sc.com

US-Iran war (see Figure 1).

We forecast that large-enterprise capex plans for both FY25 and FY26 will

track the usual seasonal pattern. Although we expect FY25 capex plans to

be revised down, we still look for solid levels of spending (see Figure 2). In

contrast, we expect FY26 capex plans to be revised upward.

Current business conditions DI: Forecasting deterioration for both

manufacturers and non-manufacturers

We forecast the current business conditions DI at +15 for large manufacturers,

down 2pt from the +17 reading in the March survey, and at +35 for large non-

manufacturers, down 1pt from +36 in March (see Figure 1 and Figures 3–4).

Within manufacturing, petroleum & coal products and nonferrous metals may

face headwinds from supply constraints stemming from escalating Middle East