Asia Thematic Alpha: Multipolarising Opportunities into 3Q

Research evidence excerpt

Asia Thematic Alpha: Multipolarising Opportunities into 3Q

Idea

June 22, 2026 09:00 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley Asia (Singapore) Pte.+MAsia Thematic Alpha | Asia Pacific Daniel K Blake

Equity Strategist

Multipolarising Opportunities Daniel.Blake@morganstanley.comKristal Ji +65 6834-6597

Kristal.Ji@morganstanley.com +65 6834-6949

into 3Q Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+

Ehsernta Fu

We see Asia returns broadening into 3Q, with reported terms of Equity Strategist

Ehsernta.Fu@morganstanley.com +852 3963-3711

the US-Iran MoU leaving a strong impetus for global spend on

Morgan Stanley Asia (Singapore) Pte.+

energy security and defence despite SoH reopening. We also Jonathan F Garner

note US-China AI competition tensions possibly rising, Equity Strategist

Jonathan.Garner@morganstanley.com +65 6834-8172

reinforcing semi localization and critical minerals thematics.

US-Iran MoU highlights energy security and defence imperatives: Energy markets

have been conditioned to quickly fade geopolitical spikes, particularly when faced

with the downside risk of a major supply release. Similarly, defence and energy-

security related companies have struggled to deliver further outperformance in

2026, with investor concern about a 'lack of catalysts', or that stretched fiscal

Exhibit 1 : Market Breadth (rolling 6m share

profiles will leave commitments unmet. Instead, our reading of the reported terms

of stocks outperforming index) - 1H 2026 has

of the US-Iran MoU suggests an even stronger imperative for spending, with

seen the narrowest market in history, except

uncertainty about access through the Strait likely to persist after the 60-day initial

for 2H 1999

period, with a potential reconstitution of missile and drone capabilities not off the % of Constituents outperforming index over 6 months

table.