VEND-Improving NAA trends in Sweden signal Blocket stabilization-06/16/2026

Research evidence excerpt

VEND-Improving NAA trends in Sweden signal Blocket stabilization-06/16/2026

VEND

NEWSFLASH | 16 JUN 2026

Improving NAA trends in Sweden signal Blocket stabilization

VEND just dropped its pre-silent letter, with QTD NAA (volume) development for April & May, with sequentially improving

trends in Sweden the key read. Mobility Private NAA comes in at -13% y/y (vs. PAS at -20%) and improving from -28% in Q1,

while Professional volumes remain stable (-5% vs. PAS -4%). Coupled with improvements in Recommerce transacted GMV

(+0% y/y vs. -10% Q1’26), we read this as a signal that the disruption from the Blocket transition is contained to H1’26. VEND

also confirms that the planned professional price adjusted took place in May, with no apparent volumes impact while it

reiterates its Opex ex. COGS guidance of NOK -100m y/y. While we only expect marginal changes to our fx-adjusted Q2’26

EBITDA estimate of NOK 709m (BBG cons at NOK 711m), we read the update to be on the positive side given trends in

Sweden, and the update should consequentially be delta positive for the share. We currently have a BUY TP NOK 370.

Sweden Mobility trends improving, signaling that the Blocket transition disruption is contained to H1’26:

The most decision-relevant data for the equity case is favorable in our view, with Sweden Private NAA at -13% y/y QTD (vs. PAS est. -20%

y/y), a sharp improvement from the -28% y/y in Q1’26 and -35% y/y in the Q1 pre-silent letter. Also, VEND flags fewer working days in April-

May, meaning the underlying print could be marginally understated. Sweden Professional came in at -5% y/y, in-line with our -4% estimate,

also sequentially improving from the past several quarters. Note that Sweden Recommerce transacted GMV improved to 0% y/y from -14%