UK Economic Comment "BoE: On hold; the door to hikes still open" Titareva

Research evidence excerpt

UK Economic Comment "BoE: On hold; the door to hikes still open" Titareva

Global Research

18 June 2026ab

UK Economic Comment Economics

United KingdomBoE: On hold; the door to hikes still open

Anna Titareva

Economist

BoE keeps rates unchanged in a 7-2 vote anna.titareva@ubs.com

+44-20-7568 5083

As firmly expected, the BoE left the Bank Rate unchanged at 3.75% in a 7-2 vote, also in

line with expectations. The Committee reiterated its previous message that it “stands Mustafa Oguz Caylan

Strategistready to act as necessary to ensure that CPI inflation remains on track to meet the 2%

mustafa.caylan@ubs.com

target in the medium term”, with all members agreeing that the policy response will +44-20-7901 5203

depend on the extent of second-round effects. In their individual paragraphs, the

majority of the MPC members acknowledged that recent data provided some further Benjamin Jarrett

Strategist

evidence that underlying disinflation had been on track before the start of the conflict.

benjamin.jarrett@ubs.com

However, Governor Bailey’s comments that "risks to inflation and interest rates are on +44-20-7567 5430

the upside" and that he “would respond promptly” to any signals of second-round

effects, point to a hawkish bias. As expected, Megan Greene joined Huw Pill in voting Reinhard Cluse

for a hike. In her paragraph, Ms Greene justified her vote as a risk-management

reinhard.cluse@ubs.com

approach, arguing that the risk of tightening policy too slowly outweighs the potential +44-20-7568 6722

negative impact on the economy from a pre-emptive hike. Overall, the meeting

Felix Huefnerdelivered no major surprises: the Bank remains data-dependent but continues to signal

that further rate increases remain a possibility.

felix.huefner@ubs.com

+49-69-1369 8280