Burckhardt Compression "Revenue decompression may extend into FY27E, but..."

Research evidence excerpt

Burckhardt Compression "Revenue decompression may extend into FY27E, but..."

he continued

build-out of Services should help both top-line growth and margin expansion. But this is counter-

balanced by sluggish near-term earnings prospects due to the prevailing macro (FY26E EPS -20%,

FY27E +0%). We believe the shares increasingly offer a favourable risk / reward given the net cash

balance sheet, strong 35-40% ROIC profile and CHF50-100m FCF capacity. But given the limited

visibility into the timing of an order recovery and adverse earnings momentum, think lack any

catalysts for a re-rating for now.

EVIDENCE We compare Burckhardt Compression's historical growth rates to order patterns to our UBS capex

trackers and consider our UBS shipyard order tracker.

WHAT´S PRICED IN? Our reverse DCF analysis indicates that the current share price discounts a more conservative earnings

outlook than required by the company's targets: i.e. flattish sales through FY27E, limited growth

thereafter, and EBIT margins in the lower half of the 12-15% target range.Please

Upside/Downside

Spectrum

Valuedrivers (in EBIT margin EBIT margin Org. growth

Sales FY26E Sales FY30E

CHF) FY26E FY30E FY26-30E

590 upside 970m 12.4% 1,350m 15.0% 5.0%

500 base 943m 12.0% 1,210m 14.0% 3.1%

405 downside 915m 11.6% 982m 12.4% -1.5%

Source: UBS estimates

Company Description Burckhardt Compression AG, headquartered in Winterthur, Switzerland, is a global leader

specialising in reciprocating compressor systems, covering the full range of reciprocating compressor

technologies and services. Its systems are used in the oil and gas, gas transport and storage, refinery,

chemical, petrochemical and industrial gas sectors. Its divisional setup is split between compressor

systems, and services and components.