Burckhardt Compression (1K) | Hold | Systems cooling, Services not yet heating up

Research evidence excerpt

Burckhardt Compression (1K) | Hold | Systems cooling, Services not yet heating up

Burckhardt Compression Hold | Target Price: CHF505.00

Weaker-than-expected outlook

Uncertain near-term outlook

Burckhardt Compression shares are down sharply, after adverse FX on top of market distortions,

the US tariffs, and the Middle East conflict led to customer deferrals. Against this backdrop, the

company issued a cautious FY 2026 outlook that was well below market expectations.

The Middle East conflict had a negative impact on the business in March 2026. Especially with

respect to orders and sales, this weighed on the group's performance during a period which is

usually a seasonally very active time of year.

In SYST, management also cautioned that the Middle East-related project pipeline across all

segments is not expected to recover before the end of FY 2026/27. The core scenario assumes

the conflict eases in H2, with a market normalisation and recovery expected six months later.

The SERV performance is expected to improve in H2, as customers cannot indefinitely postpone

services. What is absent here is a return to growth.

After five years of a book-to-bill >1, client activity has normalised, reducing revenue visibility.

Burckhardt Compression still targets CHF1.2bn in sales and a 12–15% EBIT margin, but the goal

has been pushed out beyond the original FY 2027/28 MRP timeline. The revised timing is

dependent on a Middle East conflict resolution and trade/macro stability.

Table 1:FY 2025/26 in brief

Category Area Impact

Overall Macroeconomic Rising costs and supply chain disruptions impacting GDP growth

impact backdrop

Higher input costs (freight and logistics)

Swiss Franc appreciation in FY 2025: +9.4% vs. USD, +17.4% vs. INR, +4.7% vs. CNY