Kyowa Kirin "Tivozanib ophthalmic formulation Phase 2 trial preview" (Neutral)

Research evidence excerpt

Kyowa Kirin "Tivozanib ophthalmic formulation Phase 2 trial preview" (Neutral)

Global Research

18 June 2026ab

Kyowa Kirin Equities

JapanTivozanib ophthalmic formulation Phase 2 trial

preview Pharmaceuticals

12-month rating Neutral

12m price target ¥2,600.0Available data remains limited, but ~27% potential share price upside if Phase 2

succeeds

We preview the Phase 2 trial of tivozanib ophthalmic formulation (KHK4951), which Price (18 Jun 2026) ¥2,505

Kyowa Kirin is developing for neovascular age-related macular degeneration (nAMD) RIC: 4151.T BBG: 4151 JP

and diabetic macular edema (DME), a leading cause for vision loss. The concept is to

replace highly aversive “intraocular injections” with “maintenance therapy via eye Trading data and key metrics

drops.” The primary endpoints for both indications are scheduled for August 2026, with 52-wk range ¥2,885-2,164

data potentially presented at AAO (American Academy of Ophthalmology) in October. Market cap. ¥1,311b/US$8.16b

Kyowa Kirin has indicated the possibility of out-licensing development beyond Phase 2. Shares o/s 523m (ORD)

If Phase 2 data are positive, an out-licensing announcement around August is possible in Free float 45%

order to avoid delaying Phase 3 initiation. Based on PharmaValues, we assume NPV per Avg. daily volume ('000) 1,415

share of ¥85 (4.6% of total; probability of approval 25%, peak sales of $3.0bn). If Phase Avg. daily value (m) ¥3,450.5

2 is successful and the asset is out-licensed, we calculate approximately 27% share price Common s/h equity (12/26E) ¥934b

upside. Given that only limited Phase 1 data are currently available, we assume a 30% P/BV (12/26E) 1.4x

probability of Phase 2 success. According to LSEG data, half of Kyowa Kirin’s sell-side Net debt to EBITDA (12/26E) NM