Kyowa Kirin (4151): Earnings lifted by one-off factors; focus on rebuilding growth story

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Kyowa Kirin (4151): Earnings lifted by one-off factors; focus on rebuilding growth story

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Kyowa Kirin (4151)

Earnings lifted by one-off factors; focus on

rebuilding growth story

Reiterate Rating: UNDERPERFORM | PO: 1,800 JPY | Price: 2,388 JPY

25 May 2026

Raise PO to ¥1,800 but reiterate Underperform Equity

We revise our earnings forecasts following 1Q results and an updated assessment of the

development status of rocatinlimab, an atopic dermatitis treatment. While our sales

forecasts over the next five years remain largely unchanged, we raise our core operating Key Changes

profit forecasts by up to 32% to reflect cost savings resulting from the discontinuation (¥) Previous Current

of the rocatinlimab clinical program. We raise our DCF-based price objective from Price Obj. 1,600.00 1,800.00

¥1,600 to ¥1,800. Nonetheless, we reiterate our Underperform rating due to our view 2026E Rev (m) 523,800.0 525,600.0

that the recent pipeline setback will continue to significantly affect prospects for 2027E Rev (m) 548,800.0 535,700.0

medium- to long-term growth. 2028E Rev (m) 571,800.0 561,500.0

2026E EPS 143.75 189.20

Near-term earnings stable; new growth drivers needed 2027E EPS 127.38 156.09

We forecast core operating profit of ¥131.4bn for FY12/26, broadly in line with company 2028E EPS 134.26 151.81

guidance of ¥130.0bn. In the near term, earnings are expected to benefit from lower 2026E EBITDA (m) 139,700.0 181,300.0

R&D expenses; however, uncertainty remains regarding the sustainability of medium- to 2027E EBITDA (m) 132,700.0 162,100.0

long-term growth. For the time being, we expect earnings support from products such as 2028E EBITDA (m) 141,500.0 162,800.0

Crysvita for X-linked hypophosphatemia (XLH) and Komzifti for menin-dependent acute