Latest Checks - Brunson Bull Market or Wembanyama Crash Out?

Research evidence excerpt

Latest Checks - Brunson Bull Market or Wembanyama Crash Out?

ough April and May, though they also noted that the early days of

June have been off to a stronger start. Affordability remains a key issue, and some OEMs are highlighting new, lower-

priced product for the MY27 lineup.

(+) Harley-Davidson: Retail momentum from 1Q has continued into May & early June. Inventories are now much better

positioned in the US (likely less so internationally), and some dealers are facing shortages.

(=) Fitness: Gym utilization remains strong, and cancellations have not materially picked up according to our gym checks.

Our Planet Fitness operators have been happy with the company's pause in raising the black card pricing.

Restaurants

(+/=) Restaurants: Sales trends appear to be holding up, but prolonged elevated gas prices remain a recurring concern,

particularly for lower-income consumers. We think trends at McDonald's seem steady despite tough compares (lapping

Minecraft strength in 2Q), especially given the recent cold beverage rollout, which we think could be a meaningful comp

tailwind and afternoon/early-evening daypart driver pulling in younger and specialty-coffee customers.

(=) Food Service Distribution: Our conversations point to a further step-up in distributor sentiment, with independent

restaurant case growth accelerating across the large players.

(+) GLP-1s: The GLP-1 market is at an inflection point with Medicare coverage kicking in July 1st dropping out-of-pocket

costs to $50. We think GLP-1s could be having some impact on snacking and, to a lesser extent, beer, though the read-

through to restaurants remains unclear at this stage

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