CEEMEA Blog: Insight Central Asia & Ukraine: CBU sounds dovish as NBU considers hike

Research evidence excerpt

CEEMEA Blog: Insight Central Asia & Ukraine: CBU sounds dovish as NBU considers hike

Deutsche Bank

Research

Asia Emerging Markets Date

Central Asia 19 June 2026

Emerging Europe CEEMEA Blog

Insight Central Asia & Ukraine: CBU

sounds dovish as NBU considers hike

Anna Friedemann

Ukraine: NBU signals possible hike Research Analyst

The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) met this week and remained on hold at 15% +44-20-754-11816

in line with expectations. Previously, the NBU had kicked off what appeared to be

a tentative easing cycle in January with a 50bps cut but turned more cautious after

the start of the US-Iran war and higher global energy prices feeding into domestic

price pressures. At this meeting, the NBU sent its most decisive hawkish message

yet, reiterating the NBU's readiness to raise its key policy rate if necessary. The next

decision will be guided by the July macroeconomic forecast round.

Press release. The Board describes the inflation slowdown in May as in line with

expectations and driven by seasonal factors, including an increase in the supply of

raw food. Both headline and core inflation are currently a touch above the NBU's

April forecast due to second-round effects from the uptick in energy prices. Going

forward, the harvest season, a stabilisation in energy prices, and tight monetary

policy are expected to return inflation to a steady downward trajectory. The NBU

expects volumes of external financial assistance to pick up after shortfalls at the

start of the year. The Board estimates that potentially up to USD 13bn could arrive

in Ukraine in June under the new Ukraine Support Loan from the EU, the G7 ERA

scheme, and in form of a new disbursement from the IMF. The NBU now expects