Connecting the Dots in Commodities (Jun 8-14)

Research evidence excerpt

Connecting the Dots in Commodities (Jun 8-14)

Metals & Mining

Equity Research

June 15, 2026

Lithium: China lithium carbonate spot declined 1.2% WoW per BBG, vs SMM price quote•

rebounding by RMB7.5/t or 4.6% WoW, thanks to developments on the supply side.

Firstly on Jun 8, Jiangxi Bureau of Natural Resources announced the cancellation of

"Pre-approval and Site Selection Opinion on Land Use for Project Construction" related to

Jianxiawo lepidolite mine, as requested by the company. This indicates that Jianxiawo is

unlikely to restart in 2026, reinforcing our earlier expectation. The pre-approval is required

for official land use approval. Technically, the company could reapply immediately and

it would usually take 15-30 working days to get a new pre-approval, according to

Shanghai Securities News. However, other approvals are required before the mine can

fully restart; some expect at least 1 year. Elsewhere, a fire occurred during maintenance

work at Tianqi's Greenbushes CGP3 on Jun 9. Detailed assessment is underway; Tianqi

mentioned this could impact CGP3 ramp-up, but key facilities are not affected, and there's

no impact on CGP1/2. We have yet to assume materially-lower volume this year, but this

supported price sentiment.

Thermal coal: QHD5500 was flat WoW. On Jun 8, Shaanxi province NDRC announced•

that ensure energy supply during the summer peak season, coal mining companies

were asked to "release advanced capacities under the conditions of compliant and safe

production, to reach full capacity when possible and maintain/ increase output." Shaanxi

is mainly a thermal coal producer vs the affected region in Shanxi, which mainly produces

met coal. This announcement suggests there may not be significant supply contraction,