Crude Sunday: Wide discrepancies in oil market estimates

Research evidence excerpt

Crude Sunday: Wide discrepancies in oil market estimates

Equity Research - 21 June 2026 11:25 CEST

Oil & Oil Services and Renewable Energy

This Sunday, we look closer at the latest consensus estimates for the oil market – as we always do the week after the four

agencies that we track (IEA, EIA, OPEC and FGE) publish their monthly reports with detailed oil market forecasts. The IEA

released 2027 estimates for the first time this month (June) and is now included in the consensus '27e call-on-OPEC together

with OPEC, EIA, and FGE, which all released 2027 estimates in January.

We track the key oil market estimates from:

1. The International Energy Agency (IEA), OECD,

2. OPEC,

3. Energy Information Administration (EIA), US Government, and

4. Facts Global Energy (FGE), independent UK-based energy consultancy

In particular, we focus on the call-on-OPEC, which we believe is the most important figure in the oil market and what we like to

call "the oil market's EPS". It is as important for the short-term oil price as EPS is for a stock.

Call-on-OPEC" is less relevant in times like this... nevertheless

The call-on-OPEC figure is less relevant in times like these, with OPEC production down by ~10 mb/d since the start of the Iran

war. This obviously dominates the near-term oil market focus. Nevertheless, the consensus estimate trend always needs to be

followed - read more about it below.

OPEC production

Source: IEA, ABG Sundal Collier

2026 consensus estimates: Call-on-OPEC up on lower supply - no read-x to oil prices

OPEC, EIA and FGE started reporting detailed 2026 estimates from January 2025, while IEA started reporting from April 2025.

• This month (June), consensus '26e call-on-OPEC was estimated at +0.03 mb/d vs. -0.26 mb/d in May.