Australian Equity xStrategy

Research evidence excerpt

Australian Equity xStrategy

Macquarie Equity Research

17 June 2026

Equity Strategy

AustraliaAustralian Equity xStrategy

Higher (and drier) for longer

Matthew Benji

Key Points Brooks, CFA Klotz

• In the last month, we used xStrategy - our AI evidence engine - to build

investment views on El Niño and the RBA rate path. Figure 1 - RBA tone remains hawkish

after the June meeting

• The BoM called El Niño earlier than we expected. This catalyst favours

miners & builders over rural exposures. BearPre-RBAMarket MeetingRecessionTone vs CashCash Rate,Rate (left)US BearToneMarkets(right) & RecessionsRBA Hike Cut

+800 +80

+70• The RBA held, but tone was hawkish (+46.1) and suggests a final hike is

still live. We think it's too early to buy rate cut beneficiaries. +700 Hawkish Tone +60+50

+600 +40

+30

+500 +20

+10

-10Too much blue sky favours miners & builders over rural/crop +400+300 0 -20

-30

-50

-60• BoM declared El Niño is underway, earlier than we expected. NOAA +200+100 -40

moved on 11 June, and BoM on 16 June. Both note the risk of one of 0 Dovish Tone -70-80

the strongest El Niño since 1950. In Too much blue sky (20 May 2026), 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026

we argued markets should start pricing El Niño risk before the official Source: RBA, Gemini, FactSet, Macquarie Research, June

2026.

call. That catalyst has arrived. Two of our three nowcast triggers are

confirmed - surface temperature and atmosphere - while IOD remains Figure 2 - Decision day tone scores

negative but is expected to improve through winter-spring.

Þ Potential winners are stocks where dry weather improves uptime Post meeting tone score 16-Jun-26

Decision & press conference Bullock or reduces disruption: mining, mining services, contractors, building