China Autos - overseas growth deep dive

Research evidence excerpt

China Autos - overseas growth deep dive

Macquarie Equity Research

17 June 2026

Energy Transition & Commodities

Automobiles & Components

AsiaChina Autos - overseas growth deep dive

Scope for exports to double in three years

Eugene Calvin

Key Points Hsiao, CFA Ye

• Overseas growth remains the sole bright spot in the China auto sector,

with 5M26 exports up 68% and NEVs up 117% YoY hitting 173k units. China OEMs set to grow rapidly in

RoW market; ~1/4 of global demand

• Chinese OEMs global auto market share (ex-China) reached 6% as of

FY25 compared to Japanese and Korean OEMs with 43%.

• BYD, Geely and XPeng all have bullish overseas targets and look to

balance exports, with localised production to manage market risks.

China OEMs potential to deliver RoW volumes 17% CAGR through 2030

After a 26% overseas volume CAGR over the past 2 years, we still see a

major ramp up ahead for domestic Chinese automakers abroad. Over the

next 3 years, overseas expansion can be sustained by 1) entry into new

product categories; 2) differentiated tech/powertrain; and 3) higher value

for money. Excluding markets with incumbent local major OEMs (ie, China/

US/EU/JP/KR/India), we estimate Chinese OEMs' market share reached 16%

in 2025. If this reaches the equivalent 2025 share for JP+KR players (35%) Source: Marklines, Macquarie Research, June 2026

by 2030E, this implies a potential 17% CAGR.

Over recommendations

Protectionist measures offset by growing localisation efforts CP TP

Company Ticker Rec 12M TSR

Beyond RoW low-hanging-fruit markets for Chinese Auto OEMs, the long- (local ccy) (local ccy)

BYD - H 1211 HK OP 84.05 118.00 40.4%

term opportunity could be limited due to rising protectionist measures BYD - A 002594 CH OP 89.64 109.00 21.6%

in markets like the US, EU and India.