KEY-CA: Model Update—Trimming Estimates—Maintain EW

Research evidence excerpt

KEY-CA: Model Update—Trimming Estimates—Maintain EW

Equity Research

Earnings Revised — June 15, 2026

Midstream Energy

Keyera Corp.

Model Update—Trimming Estimates—Maintain EW Equal Weight

Price Target: C$54.00

Notable Changes

Our Call C$ (Dec) Current Prior % Chg

We're trimming our 2026-2027 estimates to reflect lower liquids contributions. Our PT EBITDA 1.60B 1.62B -1.0%

remains unchanged on higher assumed multiple for the PAA NGL assets, which offsets (MM) 2026

lower DCF/DDM valuation. We maintain our Equal Weight rating. EBITDA 2.11B 2.13B -1.0%

(MM) 2027

Rev. (MM) 2026 5.71B 5.73B -0.3%

Trimming 2026-2027 Estimates. We're lowering our 2026E EBITDA to C$1.6B from

C$1.62B to reflect lower assumed Liquids Infrastructure (LI) contributions. We're also Rev. (MM) 2027 5.82B 5.85B -0.4%

lowering our 2027E EBITDA to C$2.11B from C$2.13B on lower LI partially offset

by higher synergies. We now project synergies as follows: C$130MM in 2027 (from Ticker KEY-CA

$125MM prior) and C$150MM in 2028 (unchanged). Excl. contributions from assumed Upside/(Downside) to Target (5.6)%

capex, our forecast implies adj. EBITDA/sh growth in 2025-27 of 16%, in line with Price (06/15/2026) C$57.20

guidance. 52 Week Range C$40.09 - 59.99

Market Cap (MM) C$13,115

Raising 2026-2027 Capex Estimates. We're raising our 2026 total capex estimate to C Enterprise Value (MM) C$16,818

$840MM from C$580MM to reflect Empress turnaround (maintenance) and the newly Average Daily Value (MM) C$95

sanctioned ACE rail terminal (C$240MM of growth spending in 2026-2027). For 2027,

Dividend Yield 3.9%

we project total capex of C$653MM from C$573MM primarily due to assumed spending

on ACE. Our 2028+ capex estimates are ~$170-180MM/year for maintenance and ~

C$ (Dec) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY

$200-300MM/year for growth.