Keyera Corp.: Steady core growth with acquisition tailwinds to come

Research evidence excerpt

Keyera Corp.: Steady core growth with acquisition tailwinds to come

Barclays | Keyera Corp.

• Turning to the quarter, we estimate G&P realized margin of C$121mm, flattish to

slightly above 1Q's C$118mm. Our estimate reflects lower q/q volumes overall, reflecting

outages at Wapiti and Pipestone during the quarter. Though South G&P volumes were

modestly up q/q, we note those volumes are less profitable than Northern volumes. Slightly

lower volumes were largely offset by higher fees related to maintenance recovery.

• We estimate Liquids Infrastructure realized margin of C$206mm, above last quarter's

C$141mm. Our estimate reflects partial contribution from both the PAA and KAPS

acquisitions, and we expect contribution to step up more meaningfully in 3Q given it will be

the first quarter with full ownership of the assets. Contribution from KEY's base LI assets (excl.

PAA) reflect lower q/q G&P volumes coupled with a two-week outage to tie in frac II from the

PAA assets.

Longer term, we believe KEY's condensate business is poised to benefit from likely upcoming

incremental WCSB egress given several projects currently under consideration. Incremental

egress could also help underwrite expansions of KEY's G&P business, with more processing

capacity likely necessary to handle incremental volumes as KEY's existing assets continue to

fill up, particularly in the North (read more here).

• Turning to Marketing, we anticipate still relatively subdued 2Q realized margin ($30mm

in 2Q vs. $13mm last quarter) but expect a significant uptick in 2H, in part due to

integration of the PAA Marketing assets. With its June business update, KEY updated 2026

Marketing guidance to C$360mm - C$390mm (previously C$210mm - C$250mm) to reflect its