Arctic Sector FLASH: Energy - Natural gas comment - shaken, not stirred

Research evidence excerpt

Arctic Sector FLASH: Energy - Natural gas comment - shaken, not stirred

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Energy | Sector Flash | 12 June 2026 | 07:59

Natural gas comment - shaken, not stirred

● Trading on headline news continues

● TTF spot down 6% on day to €48/MWh ($16.3/MMBtu)

● 49% "traded" probability of imminent Hormuz reopening

● 50/50 means no clear path

Trading on headline news continues

Natural gas continues to trade on headline news. Yesterday, fresh claims from President Trump that a

deal is imminent pushed the TTF spot price down to an intraday low of €46/MWh before closing at €48/

MWh, down around 6% from the previous day. The day before, prices had moved higher on Trump's

renewed claims that the US would intensify military attacks on Iranian infrastructure.

49% implicit probability of imminent Hormuz opening

With TTF closing at €48/MWh, the implied probability of an imminent reopening of the Strait of Hormuz

increased to 49%, up from 40% the day before. This reflects the highly volatile market sentiment, which

continues to swing from one headline to the next. The implied probability is derived from a simple

binary framework, where a prolonged closure corresponds to a TTF price of €65/MWh and an imminent

reopening corresponds to €30/MWh. At current prices, the market is effectively assigning equal odds

to the two outcomes.

50/50 means no clear path forward

A probability close to 50% suggests that the market sees no clear path toward, neither a successful

negotiation nor a prolonged stalemate. In other words, from a market perspective, the outcome remains

largely unpredictable regardless of the daily news flow.