The Outlook: 2026 Mid-Year Securitization Outlook

Research evidence excerpt

The Outlook: 2026 Mid-Year Securitization Outlook

Big Pic: Demand surge pricing

▪ DB Economics View.

▪ Resilient economy: 2.2% real GDP growth forecast. Supported by fiscal policy, financial

conditions, and AI investments. Fiscal deficit at 6.6% with risk from war, tariff refunds.

Higher oil ($150/bbl) a risk to consumer spending and could reduce real GDP to 1.75%.

▪ Labor: Firmer payroll gains, broader job growth. 4.3% unemployment through 2026.

▪ Inflation: Disinflation story less convincing, with core PCE expected to remain at 3.0%.

▪ Rates: Fed on hold “indefinitely”; risk skewed towards hikes. 10yr UST forecast: 4.7%.

▪ Supply. Securitized full-year issuance now projected at $1tn, net issuance is only $270bn.

▪ Demand. $500bn of inflows into IG credit. $300bn of projected annuity inflows plus $200bn

IG mutual and bond funds. Securitized likely to garner ~$200bn.

▪ Credit. We downgrade the Consumer slightly from B+ to a B. For securitized, a ‘B’ grade is

still a positive backdrop and only impacts a handful of sectors and some deep subordinates.

▪ Rates. Higher rates normally a headwind for issuance/credit, but strong economy over-riding

this challenge. Higher rates will create refi stress for CLOs, CMBS.

▪ Demographics. Demographics are playing a key role in credit. How? 1) Boomers have

strong natural demand for fixed income and have the most assets, 2) Boomers are also

home-owners and sitting on significant home equity.

▪ Relative Value. Take the carry. Securitized will outperform Corporates via carry. Securitized

sector forecasts are slightly wider. We see Non-QM as an outperformer; CLO carry is

compelling. Subordinate securitized bonds will remain a food fight due to insurance demand

and annuity inflows.

Deutsche Bank.