Brazil Election Tracker: June 15th edition

Research evidence excerpt

Brazil Election Tracker: June 15th edition

Deutsche Bank

Research

Economics Date

Brazil Election Tracker 16 June 2026

June 15th edition

Beatriz Garcia Nunes

This is the 3rd report from our new Brazil Election Tracker. Updates are provided LatAm Economist

on a bi-weekly basis, moving to more frequent releases as we get closer to +1-212-250-9584

October.

Francisco Campos

The outlook of the race: the election will likely have a second round. According to Chief LatAm Economist

recent polling data, the incumbent, President Lula of the left-wing Workers' Party +1-212-250-9764

(PT), will run against Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the conservative right-wing

Liberal Party (PL). Neither candidate has formally unveiled their policy platform.

Latest developments: Lula's lead over Flávio in the runoff has marginally

increased (+1pp to 6pp) since our previous tracker. This shift reflects (i) the

negative impact on Flávio's prospects due to leaked evidence connecting him to

the Banco Master corruption investigation (with the “shy voter” factor likely

slightly overestimating its effect, in our view), and (ii) the positive effect of various

credit and debt renegotiation programs on Lula's approval. The Senate has

approved several bills in the past weeks, some with significant fiscal impact,

against the president’s requests, pointing to a diminished political control by the

government. These bills will likely face challenges due to presidential veto or

Supreme Court unconstitutionality rulings. This fragmentation could hamper the

government's ability to pass key legislation, such as the proposed bill that reduces

the standard workweek from 44 to 40 hours (PEC 6X1) before the election.

Further electoral shifts could happen at any moment as the main figure in the