Hsueh On Oil: New data points

Research evidence excerpt

Hsueh On Oil: New data points

16 June 2026

Hsueh On Oil

Figure 1: Vessel crossings rose sharply in late May and Figure 2: Daily transit data shows that Iranian and

early June (7-day averages) other-origin cargo shipments were significantly higher

on 1-June, 2-June

Source: Kpler, Deutsche Bank Research Source: Kpler, Deutsche Bank Research

We can also see that vessel crossing data can be retrospectively revised as much

as 7 days later. Therefore, the last week’s data, which shows a meaningful drop-

off, may not be fully complete yet.

Official selling prices indicate softer July balance

Second, the premium of Saudi official selling prices was determined to be

significantly lower in July (Figure 3), indicating a softening supply-demand deficit

as compared to May and June. Both May and June set new records for the official

selling price premium in data starting from 2007. This was followed by Kuwait

making a similar move for July this week, with export crude to Asia dropping from

a USD 12.75/bbl premium in June to USD 5.25/bbl premium in July.2

The lower July premium could primarily reflect a higher expected rate of exports

in July, as we do not know what volume Saudi officials have used in their

assumptions. According to S&P Global, the official selling price differential is

“meant to capture any differences in quality, supply and demand, and any

differences between the loading period of the crude oil being priced and the

reference spot market.”3

However, one might also wonder whether the slowdown in China’s May retail

sales has meant that lower China refinery runs and crude imports have a basis in

lower-than-expected demand for refined products, rather than being facilitated

by inventory drawdown. In April, China was responsible for importing 32% of