Low Carb(on) Weekly: Trump's IRI Deal, Recon 3.0, CA CRAs, & FERC Large Loads

Research evidence excerpt

Low Carb(on) Weekly: Trump's IRI Deal, Recon 3.0, CA CRAs, & FERC Large Loads

TD Securities (USA) LLC POLICY NOTE

June 14, 2026

■WRG Energy Transition & Sustainability Low Carb(on) Weekly: Trump's IRI Deal, Recon

3.0, CA CRAs, & FERC Large Loads

John Miller THE TD COWEN INSIGHT

202 868 5306 ■President Trump (R) announced IRI 'deal' reopening SoH, initial statement silent on nuclear.

john.p.miller@tdsecurities.com

■Rep attention turns to Recon 3.0, watching for new bill framework(s).

Cooper Pryde

212 468 7804 ■EPA again targets CA auto waivers, we see 2026 and 2028 politics in play.

cooper.pryde@tdsecurities.com

■FERC to act on DOE's large load ANOPR, action here is a policy win for data centers.

Sector Impacts: Energy, Basic Materials, Utilities, Tech (Solar), & Auto OEMs

Week Ahead

Trends set to drive the weekly policy conversation:

Trump 2.0 - Trump's IRI 'Deal' - President Trump (R), on his 80th birthday, announced a

'deal' with IRI (HERE). Trump's statement mentions reopening SoH for commercial shipping,

but is silent on underlying (nuclear) issues. Progress on IRI as a win for Trump, but details,

and follow-up are critical. IRI's demonstrated ability to constrict SoH shipping adds a new

negotiation risk to what are likely extended talks.

Congress - Reco 3.0 Framework - Congressional Rep attention now turns to 3.0. We stress

wide intra-party views on relevant subject matter and even need for a third bill. We are on the

watch for a Reco 3.0 framework from Trump-aligned House Freedom Caucus with a specific

interest around possibility of further clean energy/manufacturing tax credit reforms. We think

additional IRA/OBBBA changes are unlikely - prior note (HERE).

Transport - CA EV Politics - EPA submitted additional transport related CAA waivers to