Model Update

Research evidence excerpt

Model Update

Payments

Adyen NV

TD SECURITIES (USA) LLC ESTIMATE CHANGES

June 14, 2026

Price: €828.40 (06/12/2026) Model Update

Price Target: €1,175.00

BUY (1)

ESG SCORE: 63/100

Bryan C. Bergin, CFA THE TD COWEN INSIGHT

646 562 1369

We updated estimates incorporating Talon.One + Orb M&A associated revenue/expense

bryan.bergin@tdsecurities.com

dynamics. Net, changes are largely timing-driven, with 1H26 margin pressure from one-time

David Duka deal costs and 2H26 operational costs, and 2H26 revenue contribution; it yields modest 1%

646 562 1444 + FY26E EPS/EBITDA dilution despite incremental 2H growth, and ~neutral FY27 EPS/EBITDA

david.duka@tdsecurities.com

impact.

Key Data

Symbol NXT AM: ADYEN We incorporate the financial impact of Talon.One + Orb acquisitions, driving +1% FY26 net

Beta: 2.40 revenue increase alongside ~1% margin dilution. One-time deal-related expenses are largely

52-Week Range: €1,687.40-€785.20 concentrated in 2Q and flow through 1H Other Operating Expenses, driving near-term margin

Market Cap: €26.1B compression, while 2H revenue contribution is offset by the targets' wage/IT operational

Net Debt (MM): €(10,797.4) expense.

Cash/Share: €28.69 Underlying business cadence remains intact with 1H and 2H broadly similar and typical intra-

Dil. Shares Out (MM): 31.6 year dynamics (2Q step-up & 3Q modest step-down) unchanged. The addition of Talon.One

Enterprise Value

€15,611.2 and Orb introduces incremental 2H skew, with revenue from both falling into the back half and

(MM):

BV/Share: €167.60 ramping sequentially, particularly for Orb given its AI-native customer base. Net, this results in

Dividend: €0.00 a clearer 2H growth vs. prior expectations, driven by inorganic contribution rather than a shift

in underlying demand.

Yield: 0.0%