The Truck Stop: Freight Momentum Building – How to Play Truck OEMs

Research evidence excerpt

The Truck Stop: Freight Momentum Building – How to Play Truck OEMs

USA | Machinery EquityJuneResearch11, 2026

KEY STOCKS FEATURED INCLUDE:The Truck Stop: Freight Momentum Building –

TICKER RATING PRICE TARGETHow to Play Truck OEMs

CMI BUY $775.00

The truck backdrop is extremely complex: Orders have spiked, but strength PCAR HOLD $120.00

in freight rates is still mostly supply-driven. Questions around pull forward

ahead of tariffs, cost inflation, and 2027 emissions persist, even as the final '27

regulation has yet to drop. Still, we see green shoots spreading more broadly,

which could support strength beyond 2H26. Both PACR and CMI should see

leverage to stronger builds, but CMI appears to have more valuation support. Exhibit 1 - Class 8 Truck Production Forecasts

(NA) 325,000

Builds 275,000

225,000Truck Orders and Backlogs Continue to Build. Class 8 Truck orders are up 104% YTD, with backlog Unit8

climbing to 186k units. Retail sales remain soft, which means inventory levels are beginning to pick Class 175,000125,000

Jefferies ACT Historic Class 8 Replacementup, though cancellations as a % of backlog are less than 1%, well below the historical average. With .

orders back-half-loaded for delivery ahead of the 2027 emission change, there are some concerns Source: ACT Research, Jefferies estimates

that slots are filling up, though conversations with an industry expert, and with PCAR management,

suggested ample slots remain available, as does the ability to increase production should the need

arise. We now expect 2026 builds to be closer to 280k units (prior: 270k) with 2027 pushing towards

290k before accelerating in 2028/2029 as the cycle takes shape.

PCAR: The Next Cycle Peak. Discussions are starting to shift to earnings upside to the next cycle

peak.