Energy Morning - 17 June 2026

Research evidence excerpt

Energy Morning - 17 June 2026

Oil & Oil Services

Today’s focus: Oil & Oil Services

Global oil market: FGE '27e call-on-OPEC down significantly on higher UAE production

FGE has published its monthly oil market report for June. Its '26e call-on-OPEC remained unchanged from May at -1.48 mb/

d; however, the mix in estimates were different. Global demand growth was revised down to -1.46 mb/d (driven by non-OECD

countries), while non-OPEC supply growth also was revised down to 0.02 mb/d (driven by other non-OPEC countries, i.e.,

Qatar and the UAE. We note that the call-on-OPEC is less relevant for the short-term oil price in times like this, with OPEC

production down ~10 mb/d since outbreak of the Iran war. FGE estimates peak oil demand loss of 5.5 mb/d in April/May, with

supply constraints accounting for ~80% of total demand destruction in '26. On supply, Hormuz disruptions remain the key driver,

with Persian Gulf countries the primary source of cuts and Q2''26 total output averaging just 98.3 mb/d.

The '27e call-on-OPEC was revised down significantly to -0.75 mb/d (from +0.16 mb/d in May). This was driven by higher non-

OPEC supply growth of 3.36 mb/d, partly offset by higher global demand growth of 2.61 mb/d. Most of the higher forecasted

supply growth is driven by other non-OPEC countries, i.e., a rebound from Qatar and the UAE. For the UAE specifically, FGE

raised its '27e forecast by 1.16 mb/d on an accelerated timeline for its West-East pipeline, which will double its Hormuz bypass

capacity.

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, FGE NexantECA Source: ABG Sundal Collier, FGE NexantECA

US oil market: API estimates a 8.3mbbl draw on US crude stocks

American Petroleum Institute (API), figures out last night, estimates a 8.3mbbl draw on US crude inventories since last week, in