NEL ASA: Risk Reward Update

Research evidence excerpt

NEL ASA: Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

Risk Reward – NEL ASA (NEL.OL)

KEY EARNINGS INPUTS

Drivers 2025 2026e 2027e 2028e

Electrolyser deliveries (MW) 118.2 108.4 248.0 451.9

Manufacturing capacity (MW) 1,500.0 1,500.0 1,500.0 1,500.0

Average unitary revenue -

0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4

electrolysers (€mn/MW)

Market share in electrolyser market

11.8 5.4 8.3 9.0

(%) (%)

EBITDA margin (%) (25.0) (27.5) (5.8) 2.5

INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS

New orders/framework RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Dec 2027e

agreements/partnerships Lower bond yields

Bond yields evolution New electrolyser orders Sales / 1,666

New policies/support mechanisms in favour of Stronger policy support for green hydrogen Revenue 1,026 1,911

green hydrogen, such as fixed price premium in Sharp fall in the cost of green hydrogen (NKr, mn) 1,467

EU Stronger capital flows to hydrogen names

Government targets on green hydrogen (potentially via ETFs)

deployment (96)

RISKS TO DOWNSIDE EBITDA (249) (5)

(NKr, mn)

Higher bond yields (150)GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE Ongoing cash burn

0-10% Latin America Order delays/cancellations

(354)

0-10% MEA Lack of policy support for green H2 EBIT

(561) (293) APAC, ex Japan, Mainland Competition, especially from China or large (NKr, mn) 10-20% China and India industrials (403)

20-30% Europe ex UK Technology disruption

50-60% North America Technology-related incidents (338)

Net income

Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate (437) (274)

View explanation of regional hierarchies here OWNERSHIP POSITIONING (350)

Inst. Owners, % Active 73.3%

(0.18)

HF Sector Long/Short Ratio 3.1x EPS (0.24) (0.15)

(NKr)

HF Sector Net Exposure 34.7% (0.19)

Refinitiv; MSPB Content. Includes certain hedge fund

exposures held with MSPB. Information may be Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates