Paper & Packaging: Liquid Packaging Board: Supply Shock & Equity Implications

Research evidence excerpt

Paper & Packaging: Liquid Packaging Board: Supply Shock & Equity Implications

Idea

June 15, 2026 03:00 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+MPaper & Packaging | Europe Ioannis Masvoulas, CFA

Equity Analyst

Liquid Packaging Board: Supply Ioannis.Masvoulas@morganstanley.comRMB Morgan Stanley Proprietary Limited+ +44 20 7425-0427

Brian Morgan

Equity AnalystShock & Equity Implications Brian.Morgan3@rmbmorganstanley.com +27 11 587-0803

The Nippon Dynawave accident removes ~8% of global LPB Paper & Packaging

Europe

capacity from a qualified, hard-to-switch market, tightening Industry View In-Line

supply, creating potential volume/pricing exposure for Stora

Enso and SBS producers in our coverage, assuming an extended

outage.

Key Takeaways

Longview's 300ktpa LPB capacity represents ~8% of global supply; recent

updates point to an extended outage.

Nippon Paper said Friday that it is seeking replacement supply in North America

and Northern Europe, adding near-term pressure to LPB markets.

SBS producers may redirect qualified capacity into LPB where possible,

tightening US paperboard and absorbing some Europe/Asia surplus.

Stora Enso offers the most leverage to the theme in our coverage, with existing

Nippon Paper ties and some LPB flexibility (sensitivity analysis in Exhibit 5).

SIG (LPB consumer) has no near-term exposure, though LPB supply negotiations

in late 2026 may become a watch point if the market remains tight.

Nippon Dynawave accident - supply shock: In late May, Nippon Dynawave

Packaging’s Longview mill suspended operations following a fatal accident that

involved the collapse of a chemical tank. The facility is a subsidiary of Nippon Paper

(not covered), located in Washington State, USA. The Nippon Dynawave mill is