U.S. Data Pulse: Empire Manufacturing Slowed but Stayed Positive

Research evidence excerpt

U.S. Data Pulse: Empire Manufacturing Slowed but Stayed Positive

UpdateM

Empire Manufacturing Slowed but Stayed Positive in June

Manufacturing activity decelerated in June, according to the Empire State Manufacturing

Survey. The headline business conditions index fell 13.9 points to 5.7 in June, below its 6-

month average.

Demand and production continued to show strength and resilience. The shipments index

decreased 10.3 points to 8.6, remaining firmly positive and extending the strength seen in

the prior month. The new orders index fell 19.2 points to 3.5, , remaining modestly positive

and consistent with continued demand growth. Both indices were very strong in the prior

month, therefore some moderation was to be expected, and we do not view the decline as

evidence of softening regional manufacturing activity.

Labor demand from manufacturers remained in expansion territory. The index for number

of employees edged down to 8.3, but still marked a fifth consecutive month of expansion.

The average workweek index fell to 5.1, although it remained at a healthy level.

Supply chain & inventories: Delivery times continued to lengthen for a fifth consecutive

month, although the pace of lengthening moderated. The delivery time index moved down

to 11.9 from 20.4, remaining meaningfully higher than its average of 5.9 and 1.9 in 1Q26

and 4Q25. Inventories were little changed.

Prices: Pressure from higher oil prices on input costs remained elevated but eased slightly.

The prices paid index fell 1.6 points to 61, the first month of deceleration since the start of

the Iran conflict. It still reflects ongoing pressure from elevated energy prices, but the

deceleration is a positive signal. The prices received index also decreased to 31.4, 0.4