Sasol As Kenneth Wolstenholme once said, they think it’s all over - D/G Sasol to Neutral

Research evidence excerpt

Sasol As Kenneth Wolstenholme once said, they think it’s all over - D/G Sasol to Neutral

J P M O R G A N CEEMEA Equity Research

15 June 2026

Sasol ▼Neutral

Previous: Overweight

As Kenneth Wolstenholme once said, they think it’s all SOLJ.J, SOL SJ

Price (12 Jun 26):21,357c

over - D/G Sasol to Neutral Price Target (Jun-27):20,900c

Markets have remained relatively sanguine throughout the SOH crisis and given CEEMEA Chemicals and Healthcare

the news over the weekend now seem to be pricing in a relatively rapid return to AC Alex Comer

normality. However, we note that a deal has not yet been signed and there has been (44-20) 7134-5945

many a slip twixt cup and lip; moreover, expert opinion suggests that even post alex.r.comer@jpmorgan.com

SOH opening it’s likely to take many months for logistics/ supply lines to J.P. Morgan Securities plc

normalize and inventories and strategic reserves will need to be rebuilt. Sasol has

been one of the clear winners from the crisis with its share price currently +57%

Style Exposure

vs pre crisis levels after peaking at R 239 +91%. Our Oil team’s (see here) base case

has been for the SOH to open in June but for oil to still average USD 96/bbl in 2026

before exiting 2027 at USD 65/bbl.

The key question going forward for Sasol investors is what lasting impact will the

crisis have on oil and petrochemical markets and on perceptions of Sasol. At this

juncture it’s clearly very difficult to say but as we've commented upon (here) we

make the following observations. The geopolitical landscape as it relates to oil has

changed: Venezuela is back within the US sphere of influence; there is potential for

sanctions to be lifted on Iran and Russia’s war with Ukraine looks increasingly

unsustainable - all of which points to more oil becoming available.