Uranium Monitor: Updated S/D Model Calls for More Balanced Market Through 2030

Research evidence excerpt

Uranium Monitor: Updated S/D Model Calls for More Balanced Market Through 2030

TD SECURITIES INC. - CANADA SECTOR NOTE

June 11, 2026

■Metals & Minerals Uranium Monitor: Updated S/D Model Calls

for More Balanced Market Through 2030

Craig Hutchison, P. Eng^ THE TD COWEN INSIGHT

416 982 3474

We have updated and uranium supply-demand model to reflect recent updates and new

craig.hutchison@tdsecurities.com

guidance. Our S/D forecasts have shifted from modest annual deficits to more balanced

Dennis Zhang^ markets through 2030. However, execution risks and production ramps could have a

416 965 6012 meaningful impact on our estimates and shift the market into larger deficits driving the long

dennis.zhang@tdsecurities.com

term price above our price forecast of $90/lb.

Spot uranium prices pulled back slightly to ~$85/lb but remain up 4% from ~$81/lb at the end

of last year. As of June 8, spot volumes in 2026 reached 27.5Mlbs across 278 transactions, well

above recent years’ trends, largely driven by sizable purchases from the SPUT earlier this year.

As of June 1, SPUT has acquired ~6.7Mlbs, leaving ~2.3Mlbs of remaining capacity under its

9Mlb annual purchase limit.

Term uranium prices remained at $93/lb, up over 8% YTD. As of June 1, 2026, term volumes

exceeded 30Mlbs. According to UxC, several utilities are either finalizing decisions, evaluating

options, or waiting for offers.

More balanced market through 2030. We have updated our uranium S/D model to reflect

the latest producer guidance (Figure 1), with key changes driven by Navoiyuran, Bannerman

Energy, and Orano:

■Navoiyuran is a state-owned uranium mining company in Uzbekistan and produced

18.2Mlbs in 2025, representing ~8.4% of global uranium supply and ranking as the sixth-

largest producer globally.