1Q26 MLR Report Card: National MLRs Lower Across All LoBs

Research evidence excerpt

1Q26 MLR Report Card: National MLRs Lower Across All LoBs

TD SECURITIES (USA) LLC SECTOR NOTE

June 11, 2026

■Health Care Facilities & Services 1Q26 MLR Report Card: National MLRs Lower

Across All LoBs

Ryan Langston THE TD COWEN INSIGHT

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Despite the lag, NAIC insurance statutory filings provide lines-of-business detail not publicly

ryan.langston@tdsecurities.com

reported. In 1Q26, national MLRs are lower yty for all lines-of-business; MDCR MLR -169bps yty,

Christian Borgmeyer, CFA MDCD -70bps, HIX -422bps, Group Comm'l -64bps. For-profits were mixed with MA (ex HUM)

646 562 1430 positive, MDCD (ex MOH/UNH) negative yty. The data is generally supportive of at least stable

christian.borgmeyer@tdsecurities.com

utilization trends in 1Q26.

William Spivack

202 868 5302 1Q26 National Trend Highlights

william.spivack@tdsecurities.com

Medicare Advantage - MLR was -169bps yty, with premiums PMPM yty of +6.9% above claims

Gary Taylor PMPM of +4.9% yty. UNH saw a 4.4% yty increase in MA claims PMPM vs industry (ex UNH/

646 562 1450

HUM) at 6.5%.

gary.taylor@tdsecurities.com

Medicaid - MLRs were -70bps yty, with premiums PMPM yty of +10.7% above claims PMPM

of +9.9% yty. Among CNC/MOH/ELV/UNH/HUM/CVS collectively premium PMPM +12.1% yty

vs claims PMPM +10.8%. ELV +71bps MLR appears to be somewhat favorable to their -175bps

margin contraction guidance though does not take into account G&A. We note that while

our analysis indicates MOH MDCD MLR -34bps yty, stat filings capture ~67% of MOH MDCD

enrollment and does not include CA enrollment.

Group Comm'l - MLRs were -64bps yty, with premiums PMPM yty +8.0% above claims

PMPM +7.2% yty. UNH MLRs +127bps and directionally different from their yty improvement

commentary, but we note NAIC only captures ~20% of UNH enrollment.