AEROSPACE & DEFENSE : Airlines Make Modest Further Schedule Cuts

Research evidence excerpt

AEROSPACE & DEFENSE : Airlines Make Modest Further Schedule Cuts

EQUITIES

AEROSPACE & DEFENSE

Airlines Make Modest Further Schedule Cuts

June capacity has now been cut ~6.5% since the start of the Middle East conflict (~6.0% last week),11 JUNE 2026

Sector Research Report while July capacity has been cut ~2.0%. June schedules indicate capacity down ~1.0% Y/Y, following

Production time: 22:52* (London time)

~1.5% Y/Y decline for May.

Research Analysts & Publishing Entities

Matthew Akers, CFA 50 bps cuts this week

BNP Paribas Securities Corp1 As the situation in the Middle East continues, June airline flight schedules were reduced further to a

+1 (201) 951-5967

matthew.akers@us.bnpparibas.com ~6.5% cumulative cut (~6.0% last week) vs the pre-conflict plan, with July seeing an impact at ~2.0%

(about unchanged vs last week). We still don’t expect much of an impact to aftermarket growth for

Cashen Keeler

2026 given an already large backlog of work to complete. Longer term, it is possible that additionalBNP Paribas Securities Corp1

+1 (201) 989-2413 older aircraft could be retired as high fuel prices make them less profitable to fly, however prior oil

cashen.keeler@us.bnpparibas.com price shocks have had little impact on industry performance and comments from companies reporting

Luke Leone, CFA in Q1 indicate no change in customer behavior so far.

BNP Paribas Securities Corp1

+1 (201) 772-1868 Middle East still accounts for most of cuts

luke.leone@us.bnpparibas.com

By region, our data still shows the most significant cuts to flight schedules are in the Middle East,

down 25% for June vs the pre-conflict schedules (-34% for May). Schedules have continued to move

lower in other regions as well with Asia -7.4% in June and Europe -3.1% (-8.4% and -3.6% for May,

respectively).