Reappraisal timing pushed back, but eye on record-high OP, attractive valuation

Research evidence excerpt

Reappraisal timing pushed back, but eye on record-high OP, attractive valuation

9 June 2026

KNOW: Lowering our forecasts, but expecting record-high OP in FY3/27

for first time in 10 years (continued from page 1)

Compared to FY3/26, we expect: 1) the boost from higher sales of second-generation

smart meters in Japan; and 2) improved profitability from a higher mix of Neos, a

next-generation meter with relatively high margins in Australia (we expect a full-scale

launch from 2Q FY3/27 and look for this product to account for around 40% of sales in

the region in FY3/27). We think OP guidance for the domestic smart meters &

solutions business is conservative, as is typical for the company, and we think the

company’s plan to improve OPM in the overseas smart meters & solutions business

(from 4.2% in FY3/26 to 7.8% in FY3/27) will be challenging given the slow recovery in

Australian smart meters.

Figure 1. Differences between FY3/27 OP targets in MTP and Figure 2. Outlook for Oceania (difference between FY3/27

guidance MTP targets and FY3/27 guidance)

Source: FY3/26 earnings briefing material

Figure 3. Differences between initial guidance and actual results over the past three years

FY3/24 FY3/24 FY3/25 FY3/25 FY3/26 FY3/26 FY3/27

Initial CoE Actual Initial CoE Actual Initial CoE Actual Initial CoE

Net sales 88,000 95,147 90,000 97,102 98,000 100,900 101,000

Smart meters & solutions in Japan 50,500 55,266 53,500 56,084 57,700 59,732 65,000

Smart meters & solutions in overseas 38,000 40,693 37,000 41,719 40,000 41,566 35,700

Others/Adjustment -500 -812 -500 -701 300 -398 300

OP 2,800 5,874 4,700 5,701 5,800 6,526 8,100

Smart meters & solutions in Japan 1,900 4,451 2,600 3,965 3,500 4,676 5,200

Smart meters & solutions in overseas 600 1,155 1,800 1,477 2,200 1,743 2,800