Morning Comment Norway-06/09/2026

Research evidence excerpt

Morning Comment Norway-06/09/2026

bility, with cons

currently only assuming ~22% ‘28e EBITDA margin. At the targets we S&P sector performance

calculate SWON at ~3x ‘30e EV/EBITDA and ~20% FCF yield. Our first read -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0%

is that this should be delta positive for shares. Link Semiconductors 3.8%

• ELK – Safeguard quotas for ferrosilicon are gradually filling up, and silicon Oil Services 3.5%

metal prices have started to move on reduced availability of Asian material. Oil E&P 1.3%

Optimism over an uptick in European steel production in H2 is also building, Oil Integrated 1.1%

as allowed imports will be cut by ~half. Add in a potential transaction in Gold -0.0%

Iceland, plus greater colour on further cost-cutting and M&A ambitions at the

CMD, and we think the H2'26 setup looks well placed to spur a further re- Telecom -0.3%

rating – one that could prove explosive at 7x 2027e P/E. We see potential for Banks -0.4%

ELK to trade up towards metal peers at ~10x but refrain from taking that view Retail -0.4%

just yet, pegging our TP of NOK 40 (34) to 8x 2027e P/E. Buy reiterated. Link Pharma -0.4%

• NSKOG – Saica and several other containerboard producers have Technology & Hardware -0.4%

announced a further EUR 60/t price hike to restore margins, bringing YTD Software -0.8%

increases to EUR ~160/t. We see this as driven mainly by mounting cost Airlines -1.1%

pressure, but prolonged maintenance stops also seem to have tightened the

market through May. Penciling in half of the latest hike, we lift our 2027e Media & Entertainment -1.1%

EBITDA by 8%, leaving NSKOG trading at 4x EBITDA. Beyond this, capacity Chemicals -1.3%

closures following the acquisition of the Papresa mill and the formation of the Aerospace & Defence -1.4%