Kongsberg Maritime-CMD targets support ~NOK 85-100/share, we estimate-06/09/2026

Research evidence excerpt

Kongsberg Maritime-CMD targets support ~NOK 85-100/share, we estimate-06/09/2026

Kongsberg Maritime

NEWSFLASH | 9 JUN 2026

CMD targets support ~NOK 85-100/share, we estimate

Sales CAGR is guided to 10% through the cycle (PAS high-end expectation, +4p.p. vs the 2024 CMD), with EBITDA margin

above 16%. Near-term growth is guided lower at 0-5%, which we read as caution on aftermarket activity into YTG'26e. With

6-8% FX headwinds, underlying short-term growth is close to the long-term ambition, and a NOK 600m improvement

program underpins the margin expansion. On an 8-9% WACC DCF the targets support a fair value of ~NOK 85-100/share,

while a 15-20x exit P/E on 2030e implies a 12-18% IRR. Consensus 2026e still needs to come down, but we think the shares

already reflect that downside. The key delta from here is upside to margins and the long-term growth ambition. Share price

reaction will hinge on market con?dence in the long-term targets. Every CMD target since 2020 has been met, albeit in a

favorable market, and we think a positive reaction is warranted.

Financial targets

KMAR targets a sales CAGR of 10% through the cycle, with EBITDA margin above 16%. Short-term growth is guided lower at 0-5%, which

we attribute to uncertainty around aftermarket activity in YTG'26e. With the Q1 aftermarket run-rate assuming no recovery, we estimate

flattish group sales in 2026, against consensus of 10% growth in 2026e easing to 8% and 7% in 2027-28e. We expect 2026e to be revised

down, but recent sell-side downgrades mean the shares should already reflect that short-term downside. To support the margin target,

KMAR will launch a NOK 600m improvement program, with full effect from 2027e.

For disclosures on relevant de nitions, methods, risks, potential conflicts of interests etc.