Unipol: Highly accretive, strategically compelling deal

Research evidence excerpt

Unipol: Highly accretive, strategically compelling deal

Equity Research

European Insurance

12 June 2026

Unipol

Highly accretive, strategically

compelling deal

A transformational deal for Unipol, materially strengthening UNPI.MI/UNI IM OVERWEIGHT

bancassurance penetration and control, turning the network European Insurance NEUTRAL

into a core growth engine. Our base case scenario indicates Price Target EUR 23.50

Price (09-Jun-26) EUR 22.84

c.18% EPS and c.19% DPS accretion by 2030E once full Potential Upside/Downside +2.9%

synergies are realised. Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research

European InsuranceA clear strategic fit: Unipol has agreed with Intesa Sanpaolo to acquire 100% of a carved-out

Alessia Magni, CFA

banking entity from MPS. The proposed transaction represents a strong strategic fit for Unipol,

+44 (0)20 3555 7393

in our view, as it is fully aligned with its ambition to expand its bancassurance footprint. The alessia.magni@barclays.com

deal is designed to deliver three key outcomes: 1. a step-up in insurance penetration through a Barclays, UK

significantly larger distribution network; 2. greater earnings contribution from banking

Claudia Gaspari

activities; and 3. meaningful value creation from scale benefits and expected synergies.

+44 (0)20 3134 6039

claudia.gaspari@barclays.comDouble-digit accretive even in our worst-case scenario: Our scenario analysis indicates that

Barclays, UK

the proposed deal would be EPS- and DPS-accretive by 2030 across all scenarios, with our base

case pointing to c.18% EPS accretion once synergies are fully phased in and after factoring in

the dilutive impact of the €2.5bn rights issue. We present below scenarios around this base case

by flexing assumptions on both synergy realisation and the incremental net earnings