Unipol (AO) | Buy | IIC: Confidence on delivery, with optionality on capital

Research evidence excerpt

Unipol (AO) | Buy | IIC: Confidence on delivery, with optionality on capital

Italian Investment Conference Feedback

Release date: 20 May 2026

Tommaso Nieddu

Equity Research Analyst

Buy +39 02 85 50 72 18Unipol tnieddu@keplercheuvreux.com

Italy | Insurance Beta Profile: MCap: EUR15.2bn

Target Price: EUR23.50 Bloomberg: UNI IM Reuters: UNPI.MI

Current Price: EUR21.17 Free float 48%

Up/downside: 11.0% Avg. daily volume (EURm) 52.4

YTD abs performance 2.9% Market data: 19 May 2026

52-week high/low (EUR) 22.60/16.12

IIC: Confidence on delivery, with optionality on capital

Key points

Q1's results were framed as fully consistent with the FY 2026 trajectory, and potentially ahead, with technical strength reinforced

by the deliberate reserving stance adopted in 2025 (now releasing through results) and additional prudence embedded in Q1

2026. Management has clearly built ample buffers to absorb potential seasonally heavier Q2-Q3 weather events

Health continues to benefit from the differentiated service-centric model, which structurally supports sub-90% COR (on health).

The BPER-BPSO integration closed only recently, meaning that essentially none of the recent bancassurance momentum is

integration-driven, leaving meaningful upside as penetration progresses.

Unipol continues to have ample capital, with three use cases presented: market shock absorber, above-plan growth financing

(Health, bancassurance, Nat Cat), and M&A optionality (none on the table today). With the 3-year cumulative remuneration plan

already revised to at least EUR2.4bn (from EUR2.2bn) and incremental distribution discussions deferred to plan-end with a

positive bias, the shareholder return narrative remains a core pillar of the investment case.

Speaker

Francesco Masci, CFO; Alberto Zoia, Head of IR

Temperature