LatAm Week Outlook: Macro and Strategy Highlights

Research evidence excerpt

LatAm Week Outlook: Macro and Strategy Highlights

Deutsche Bank

Research

Latin America Economics Date

12 June 2026

LatAm Week

Outlook

Macro and Strategy Highlights

Francisco Campos

Market Outlook Chief LatAm Economist

n Volatility in financial markets has been elevated in recent sessions amid a +1-212-250-9764

relatively wide range of developments in the Middle East that have featured

kinetic actions and signals of a potential peace agreement. Beatriz Garcia Nunes

LatAm Economist

n Markets sentiment has improved at the margin as odds of a peace deal in +1-212-250-9584

the Middle East have increased, with the possibility of a reopening of the

Carlos Munoz-Carcamo

strait of Hormuz coming back to the table.

Macro Strategist

n In LatAm, both domestic drivers – namely electoral developments – and +1-212-250-2259

externals – related to the conflict in the Middle East – have driven price

Christian Wietoska

action.

Strategist

n In Brazil polls continue to show Lula leading against Flavio Bolsonaro in a +44-20-754-52424

potential runoff. However, the distance between the two candidates is not

irreversible (6pp according to the last Genial/Quaest poll), as there are still

four months to go. High yields, improvement in the trade balance, and still

appetite for carry trades underpin our bullish BRL view.

n In Colombia, markets have largely priced in a De la Espriella victory in the

June 21 runoff (see our trip report). His pro-market economic platform,

which includes promoting new investments in the oil and gas industry,

should continue supporting the peso.

n After some days of uncertainty, the market seems to be taking as a baseline

that Fujimori will be the next president of Peru. Her economic program

would continue attracting foreign flows and given’s Peru supportive