CEEMEA Blog: Insight Central Asia & Ukraine: NBU and CBU likely still on hold

Research evidence excerpt

CEEMEA Blog: Insight Central Asia & Ukraine: NBU and CBU likely still on hold

Deutsche Bank

Research

Asia Emerging Markets Date

Central Asia 12 June 2026

Emerging Europe CEEMEA Blog

Insight Central Asia & Ukraine: NBU

and CBU likely still on hold

Anna Friedemann

Ukraine: NBU likely to see through uptick in inflation Research Analyst

The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) meets again on Thursday and we expect the +44-20-754-11816

Board to continue to keep its key rate at 15%. Previously, the NBU briefly returned

to monetary policy easing with a single 50bps at the first meeting of the year in

January. However, subsequently the Board turned more cautious again and has

been on hold in March and April due to Ukraine's sensitivity to the energy price

shock on the back of the developments in the Middle East since late February. The

recent NBU analyst survey similarly has a hold decision pencilled in (16x

unchanged, 1x 50bps hike) and the BBG survey so far also unanimously favours a

hold (4x unchanged).

Several domestic and external factors support the NBU maintaining a cautious

approach without having to hike at this point. First, headline inflation has

accelerated since the start of the US-Iran war on the back of sharp increases in fuel

prices. However, a slowdown in food price inflation has taken headline CPI lower

again in May. Second, while the exchange rate has remained under pressure and FX

reserves have continuously declined since January, inflows from the EU's Ukraine

Facility as well as the first disbursement under the Ukraine Support Loan should

reverse this trend in June and provide the NBU with more space to manoeuver.

Third, household inflation expectations have proven volatile but improved most

recently.