Asia Week Ahead: Chart of the week: 15 - 19 June

Research evidence excerpt

Asia Week Ahead: Chart of the week: 15 - 19 June

Deutsche Bank

Research

Economics Date

Asia Week Ahead 12 June 2026

Chart of the week: 15 - 19 June

Juliana Lee

Week Ahead Chief Economist

Indonesia, the Philippines, and Taiwan’s central banks will hold their policy +65-6423-5203

meetings next week, all on 18 June.

Kaushik Das

• We forecast Bank Indonesia to raise its policy rate by another 25bp in its Chief Economist

scheduled 18 June meeting, after its off-cycle 25bp hike on 9 June. This +91-22-7180-4909

would bring its total rate hike in June to 50bp, which was our initial

Yi Xiong, Ph.D.

expectation before BI’s unscheduled policy action, followed by another Chief Economist

25bp in July, bringing the total policy rate increase to 125bp in this cycle. +852-2203-6139

We think such policy tightening is necessary as there is likely (1)

continued pressure on Indonesia’s trade balance, where imports of oil Junjie Huang

Economist

and gas, especially, should stay elevated, and exports could face delays, +65-6423-6699

and (2) higher inflation expectations now that unsubsidized fuel prices

have risen 30%. Deyun Ou

• Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ coming meeting presents a close call +852-2203-6166

between a 50bp and 25bp hike, but we lean towards a 50bp policy rate

increase to 5%. We think a more decisive move now from the BSP would

reduce the risk that it has to do more later. May’s lower inflation print of

6.8% YoY vs April’s 7.2% would, on the surface, seem to imply that

inflation is cooling, but our analysis of underlying inflation does not

suggest the same. Rather, this respite may only be temporary and broad

price pressures are still building up in the economy. The 30% trimmed

mean inflation for May is unchanged at 4.3% YoY, while on a 3m/3m saar