US Economic Notes: What you need to know for the week ahead

Research evidence excerpt

US Economic Notes: What you need to know for the week ahead

12 June 2026

US Economic Notes

A change in style is likely to be most evident in Warsh’s press conference. Based

on prior comments, Warsh is likely to avoid forward guidance and an overreliance

on short-term data trends. With the Committee moving increasingly in a hawkish

direction, we expect Warsh to tack towards the center, not argue for near-term

rate cuts, and not take rate increases off the table. That said, he could look to

counterbalance these signals with a broader narrative that envisions medium-

term disinflationary pressures from AI and productivity. It is unclear if this

messaging will be sufficient for a market that has anticipated a dovish bias from

the new Fed chair.

We also hope to learn more about what “regime change” at the Fed might look

like. One area Warsh has promised this outcome is with communications. He will

likely be asked for his plans on press conference frequency, the dot plot and SEP,

and broader communications practices by the central bank. There is a lot of

uncertainty about how Warsh views these issues, as he has not yet presented

concrete plans. Most likely, Warsh could launch a review of these practices with

the outcomes to be presented over the coming quarters. However, he could also

prefer to move less incrementally and aim for a quicker / more significant overhaul

of communications practices. Our baseline is that Warsh will: (1) continue to

conduct a press conference at every meeting (doing so provides him the first

opportunity to frame the meeting’s discussion), (2) keep the Summary of

Economic Projections in some form, but (3) potentially eliminate the dot plot to be

replaced by the central tendency or range of projections to deemphasize the