Fed Notes: June FOMC preview: Warsh-ing their hands of guidance

Research evidence excerpt

Fed Notes: June FOMC preview: Warsh-ing their hands of guidance

Deutsche Bank

Research

Economics Date

Fed Notes 12 June 2026

June FOMC preview: Warsh-ing their hands

Matthew Luzzetti, Ph.D. of guidance

Chief US Economist

+1-212-250-6161

• With the transition of Fed leadership, key features of the June FOMC

meeting are more uncertain than normal. While initially changes might be Brett Ryan

more incremental than discontinuous, Chair Warsh has promised Senior US Economist

+1-212-250-6294

“regime change” at the Fed. His press conference will provide his first

opportunity to detail his vision for what these changes might look like. Justin Weidner

Economist

• We expect the Statement to upgrade the assessment of the labor market +1-212-469-1679

and drop the easing bias, in line with Warsh’s dislike of forward guidance.

Amy Yang Beyond that, we anticipate few changes to the statement, though Warsh

might want to undertake a more significant revamp of the document, for +1-212-250-9959

example by trimming or removing the forward-looking language in the

fourth paragraph.

• The dot plot should show a noticeably hawkish shift, with the 2026

median moving to unchanged rates and a handful of officials likely to

show an expectation for rate hikes this year. The long-run dot could

continue to edge higher as well. Warsh might not submit dots, a possible

indication of the eventual fate of what has become a key tool of

quantitative guidance. Beyond the dots, we will be most interested in

revisions to 2027 inflation forecasts, which will signal any shift in views

about the persistence of inflation pressures -- a critical determinant of

rate hikes.

• A change in style is likely to be most evident in Warsh’s press conference.