GENERAL RETAIL : A guide to tariff guidance

Research evidence excerpt

GENERAL RETAIL : A guide to tariff guidance

EQUITIES

GENERAL RETAIL

FLASH NOTE

A guide to tariff guidance

10 JUNE 2026 Sector Research Report Production time: 21:16* (London time)

Research Analyst & Publishing Entities

Laurent Vasilescu BNP Paribas Securities Corp (1) (+1) 212 634 4971 Laurent.Vasilescu@us.bnpparibas.com

What happened?

With earnings largely wrapped up, we assess how the US brands accounted for tariffs in their guidance. Within our

coverage universe, brands have taken different approaches toward reporting results and guiding with respect to tariffs

and tariff refunds. We provide an overview of what each company is currently embedding in its outlook, considering

risks from: 1) higher duties when Section 122 tariffs expire in July, and 2) tariff refund uncertainty. In our view, names

with the least risk to estimates include AS (+), ONON (+), RL (+) and LEVI (+), while the names with downside include

UAA (=), VFC (-), and KTB (-) with the table provided below. We appreciate that VF Corp did parse out in the 10K that

roughly 30% of the IEEPA tariff charges will go back to the suppliers detailed in our recent note (see link). We hope

other companies will provide this level of disclosure.

BNPP View:

Across our coverage, companies have taken different approaches to reporting and guiding the impact of tariffs and tariff

refunds. We compare these differences across a handful of measures:

1) Have refunds been recognized in the P&L yet?

2) If so, were they adjusted from results, or included?

3) Are refunds included in FY guidance?

4) What tariff rate is currently included in guidance, given the upcoming expiration of Section 122 tariffs on

July 24th (see Figure 1 below)

There are a range of assumptions for tariff rates in 2H guidance…