Japan's GDP (Jan–Mar 2026 2nd preliminary estimate)

Research evidence excerpt

Japan's GDP (Jan–Mar 2026 2nd preliminary estimate)

8 June 2026

Mizuho Securities Equity Research Economics / Domestic and Overseas Economy

Macroeconomic Outlook

Trimmed down on private-sector capex, but domestic, external demand firm overall

Chief Economist: Summary

Shunsuke Kobayashi Jan–Mar 2026 real GDP growth (second preliminary estimate) came in

+81 3 6202 8222 at +0.5% QoQ (+1.8% annualized), a slight downward revision from the

shunsuke.kobayashi@mizuho-sc.com first preliminary estimate (+0.5% QoQ, +2.1% annualized), but above the

Bloomberg consensus (+0.3% QoQ, +1.4% annualized). The downwardEconomist:

revision mainly reflects a downward revision to private-sector capex, reflectingSoichiro Hirose

basic statistics released after the first preliminary GDP estimate. In contrast,+81 3 6202 8293

soichiro.hirose@mizuho-sc.com final consumption expenditure of households, private residential investment,

government final consumption expenditures, and public investment were all

revised slightly upward.

Looking at Jan–Mar 2026 results overall, external demand contributed +0.3ppt

QoQ and domestic demand contributed +0.2ppt QoQ. For external demand,

exports of goods such as automobiles and semiconductor components made

a contribution. However, we note that the contribution of external demand

was partially boosted by the Strait of Hormuz closure, which limited import

growth. On the domestic demand side, consumption expenditure in both the

private and public sectors continued to increase steadily. Real employee

compensation continued to rise, at +0.3% QoQ, which provided support.

Japan’s terms-of-trade loss came to an annualized ¥6.8t, expanding from the

¥5.7t deficit in the previous quarter. As a result, gross domestic income (GDI),