Greater China Technology Hardware: Correction: Optics Drives the Board: PCB Beneficiaries of the AI Interconnect Build-out

Research evidence excerpt

Greater China Technology Hardware: Correction: Optics Drives the Board: PCB Beneficiaries of the AI Interconnect Build-out

IdeaM

Contextualizing the AI Transceiver PCB Opportunity

To put the opportunity into perspective, we forecast the global AI transceiver PCB

TAM to expand from approximately US$620mn in CY25 to ~US$3.8bn by CY28. For

comparison, we estimate that Apple (covered by Erik Woodring) – currently the world's

largest consumer of HDI PCBs – accounts for roughly US$3.0-3.5B of annual HDI PCB

demand. On our estimates, the AI transceiver PCB market will grow from a niche, sub-US

$1B segment today to a market comparable in size to Apple's HDI PCB demand by CY27,

before surpassing it by CY28.

The significance of this comparison extends beyond the absolute market size. For years,

Apple has been the primary driver of technology advancement, capacity investment, and

profitability within the HDI PCB industry. We believe AI optical connectivity is emerging as

the next major demand engine, creating a new growth vector for PCB suppliers and

potentially reshaping the industry's competitive landscape.

Given the pace of market expansion, increasing technology requirements, and improving

economics associated with next-generation transceiver PCBs, we believe AI transceiver

PCBs are rapidly evolving into one of the most compelling structural growth

opportunities within the global PCB sector.

Viewed from another angle, Prismark estimates the global HDI PCB market at

approximately US$16.2bn. Based on our forecast of a ~US$3.8bn AI transceiver PCB

market by CY28, AI optical connectivity alone could generate incremental demand

equivalent to roughly 23% of the current global HDI market, underscoring the significance

of this emerging growth driver for the PCB industry