Moncler (AO) | Buy | Q2 normalisation, but momentum still best-in-class (preview)

Research evidence excerpt

Moncler (AO) | Buy | Q2 normalisation, but momentum still best-in-class (preview)

#EarningsPreview #Positive

Release date: 11 June 2026

Charles-Louis Scotti

Head of Luxury Goods

+33 1 70 98 85 16

cscotti@keplercheuvreux.com

BuyMoncler

Italy | Luxury goods MCap: EUR15.2bn Country Top Picks

Target Price: EUR65.00 Bloomberg: MONC IM Reuters: MONC.MI

Current Price: EUR55.36 Free float 78%

Up/downside: 17.4% Avg. daily volume (EURm) 86.0

YTD abs performance 0.8% Market data: 10 June 2026

52-week high/low (EUR) 58.56/45.97

Q2 normalisation, but momentum still best-in-class (preview)

Key points:

We expect a strong H1-26 print (Wednesday 22 July), with 11% cFX growth and c.50bps EBIT margin expansion.

Our Q2 sales forecast (+8% cFX) stands 2% above consensus and remains among the strongest in the sector.

We are more bullish than consensus on Moncler brand trends, supported by China, South Korea and the US.

We reiterate our Buy rating and EUR65 TP ahead of H1 numbers. The stock stays in our Italian Top Picks list.

Reporting date Wednesday 22 July (post market close)

Conference call TBA

Dial in number TBA

H1-26 preview: healthy momentum despite Q2 normalisation

Moncler Group will report its H1-2026 earnings on Wednesday, 22 July, post-market close. We expect a very solid set of numbers,

with low double-digit cFX revenue growth during the semester and c. 50bps gross margin and adjusted EBIT margin expansion.

In detail, we forecast 11% cFX growth in H1 at the group level, implying a deceleration to +8% in Q2 (vs. +12% in Q1), broadly in

line with the previous quarter's exit rate. This should mainly reflect the post-CNY normalisation in China and softer tourist

spending in EMEA.

We model a 50bps gross margin improvement to 77.3%, supported by a favourable channel mix.