Moncler Spa "Q2 Preview: Seasonality Debate Heats Up Every Summer" (Neutral)

Research evidence excerpt

Moncler Spa "Q2 Preview: Seasonality Debate Heats Up Every Summer" (Neutral)

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Moncler Spa Equities

ItalyQ2 Preview: Seasonality Debate Heats Up Every

Summer Clothing & Fabrics

12-month rating Neutral

12m price target €53.70Seasonality debate persists amid sequentially moderating growth

Prior : €58.00

As we enter the summer months, the recurring debate around the increasing seasonality

of MONC’s business model resurfaces, one that the upcoming Q2 results are unlikely to Price (30 Jun 2026) €50.78

resolve. We expect cFX retail sales growth for the core brand to slow by around 10ppt RIC: MONC.MI BBG: MONC IM

sequentially. In our view, this is primarily driven by weaker tourism trends in recent years.

However, the industry’s post-Covid pivot towards local clientele suggests that this Trading data and key metrics

discussion is unlikely to fade anytime soon. Combined with reduced visibility on space 52-wk range €58.56-45.97

contribution as the business matures, these dynamics underpin our view that the stock is Market cap. €13.7b/US$15.7b

fairly valued. Following a review of our model, we adjust FY27/FY28 estimates by -1%/- Shares o/s 271m (ORD)

4%, reflecting lower like-for-like and space growth assumptions. Reiterate Neutral Free float 67%

rating with a €53.7 price target. With this note, we transfer coverage to Zuzanna Pusz. Avg. daily volume ('000) 978

Avg. daily value (m) €52.2

Q2 preview: Tourism continues to weigh on summer sales Common s/h equity (12/26E) €4.11b

MONC is due to report its H1 results on 22 July after market close. We forecast Q2 group P/BV (12/26E) 3.4x

sales of €401m with OSG of +4%. We expect the key Moncler brand to deliver +3% cFX Net debt to EBITDA (12/26E) NM